KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Automotive Affiliation (MAA) stays assured of automotive gross sales transferring ahead regardless of the current in a single day coverage fee (OPR) hikes.
The affiliation had revised its newest forecast complete business quantity (TIV) up by 5% to 630,000 items for 2022 from a decrease forecast made in January.
“Once we test with our members, the the OPR improve is manageable.
“Banks are nonetheless relying on the standard of their clients – consumers can nonetheless get loans and they don’t seem to be as stringent as believed,” MAA president Datuk Aishah Ahmad informed a press convention.
The revised forecasts additionally did take note of the current hikes within the OPR.
In January, it forecast forecast the TIV to develop to 600,000 this yr from 508,911 in 2021.
Forecasts for passenger car gross sales have additionally been revised upwards and they’re now anticipated to develop by 25.3% to 567,000 from a the earlier forecast of 540,000.
The business autos phase has seen its figures revised upwards to a development of 12% to 63,000 from an earlier forecast of 60,000.
The revised forecasts additionally took into consideration the opposite points which are affecting the automotive business reminiscent of the continuing continuation of parts and chips shortages which may dampen the manufacturing of motor autos throughout the yr.
The MAA additionally took into consideration that companies might maintain again investments in view of the continuing uncertainties on the international degree in addition to the home political scene.
“Many analysts expect that the fifteenth Normal Election (GE15) will happen inside the yr,” she stated.
Aishah stated shopping for curiosity transferring ahead can be sustained by the continued development within the gross home product (GDP) together with the achievement of backlogged orders arising from the gross sales and providers tax (SST) exemption flexibility that was lately introduced.
“There can be continuation of efforts to satisfy backlogged orders and promotional campaigns by automotive firms to spice up gross sales and preserve their market share,” she stated.
“The introduction of recent fashions reminiscent of these with newest designs and options in addition to electrical autos at reasonably priced and aggressive costs might help to maintain shopping for curiosity transferring ahead,” Aishah added.
Commenting on the request by the MAA for the present Open Market Worth (OMV) excise responsibility calculation technique to be retained, Aishah stated that this was nonetheless a piece in progress.
“Now we have despatched one other letter to request for the federal government to rethink and we have now additionally had discussions with the Customs Division. The Customs Division have indicated that they’d help an OMV calculation technique that might not be revised,” she stated.
“We are actually ready for the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to return out with the official approval letter. MoF continues to be engaged on it but it surely needs to be a optimistic (consequence),” she added.
The OMV is the ultimate market worth set for fully knocked down (CKD) autos recent out of the manufacturing unit, earlier than the addition of excise duties.
It was reported earlier that the deliberate revision in how the OMV is calculated would trigger CKD automotive costs to extend – however it’s now placed on maintain with these newest developments.
In its observe yesterday, UOB Kay Hian Analysis (UOBKH) stated it made no change to its 2022 TIV forecast of 605,000 items which suggests a 19% year-on-year development.
“Vehicle gross sales are anticipated to stay strong within the second half of the 2022 yr because of the current substantial order backlogs, and the sector can be anticipated to learn from an enchancment within the international chip provide,” UOBKH stated.
“A lot of the automotive makers have been receiving optimistic bookings that can maintain them occupied at the least for the following 5 to 6 months or from now until the tip of the yr,” it added.
Having stated that, the analysis home stated it forecasts TIV in 2023 to register 550,000 items, down 9% from 2022 because it expects a big slowdown in consumption because of the finish of SST exemption.
There is also a possible re-introduction of GST that might elevate automotive costs additional, it famous.
“Moreover, the rising inflation will corrode finish shoppers’ buying energy,” UOBKH stated.
It maintained its underweight ranking on the automotive sector which now trades at 10.6 occasions 2023 ahead price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, which is a slight low cost to its historic five-year PE imply.
“We imagine that the sector’s valuation may derate as a consequence of a cyclical automotive demand downturn from a excessive base. Moreover, the continuing weakening of the ringgit in opposition to the US greenback and the extended chip scarcity may pose draw back dangers to the sector’s earnings,” UOBKH stated.
“Based mostly on the businesses beneath our protection, we’re forecasting a 6.8% and 4.6% fall in sector earnings and income in 2023, respectively,” the analysis home added.